Labour shortage will get worse

by Jeff Nagel

A deepening labour shortage is only poised to get worse as B.C.’s population ages and the province struggles to attract new workers, a regional dialogue heard Wednesday. The 600,000 seniors now in B.C. will nearly double to almost 1.2 million aged 65-plus over the next 20 years, speakers told a GVRD-led forum on labour and immigration issues in Surrey. Barely 100,000 new people are projected to enter the labour force to offset the loss. Delaying retirement is one strategy to retain workers, economist Roslyn Kunin said. Premier Gordon Campbell has already announced plans to remove mandatory retirement at age 65 in B.C. “Freedom 85 has an nice ring to it,” Kunin quipped. She said another strategy is increased use of technology — especially things like automated retail checkouts — that allow companies to get greater productivity out of the workers they have. Intensifying the challenge is the boom in construction that’s drawing workers away from other sectors. The value of major construction projects under way has climbed from $65 billion two years ago to more than $110 billion now, said Keith Sashaw, president of the Vancouver Regional Construction Association. It all adds up to fewer younger workers in the labour force to do everything that society and the burgeoning senior classes will need. Another challenge flagged is the increasingly fickle attitudes of the new generation entering the workforce. Younger workers were portrayed as less patient, sometimes less reliable and often uninterested in less prestigious jobs they see as beneath them.

“We have a cultural problem,” said forum participant Susan Jones, saying many Canadians have been guilty of being “snobs” who believe their children must go to university and nothing less will do. She said many young people are “wasting their time” getting a degree, but won’t do some work on the side to get real experience. Jones said she could name 20 young people right now “basically sitting around with their fingers up their nose because they sneer at a lot of jobs.” It’s left employers in the service and blue-collar industries competing against the education industry, she added. B.C. Business Council policy analyst Ken Peacock said adopting a more flexible workplace can help. Peacock said one employer in Kamloops found they were better able to retain workers by declaring an instant day off when there’s a major snowfall and employees want to go skiing. Immigration — increasingly Canada’s biggest source of new workers — will become more important, but Kunin noted the country generally fails to meet its immigration targets. Competition is fierce against other nations for the most skilled workers, she noted. One solution, Kunin said, is to alter the points system used to select immigrants from one that heavily favours the university-trained towards one where foreign applicants with a less academic skill set have a better chance of gaining entry. Setting up training and certification centres overseas — something the U.S. is doing — is another option. But B.C. Federation of Labour president Jim Sinclair said immigration is largely about raiding the third world’s best talents. “We took their resources and now we’re taking their people,” he said. Likewise, he said, employers who “poach” workers from their competitors or other sectors are just moving the problem around. He said the best approach is to work harder to train new people here at home. Sinclair said B.C.’s record has been dismal since the province disbanded its old apprenticeship training agency. “Our apprenticeship completion rate has dropped dramatically since then,” he said. Some low-skill workers want to get more training but their employers — desperate not to lose them — offer them more money not to go back to school, he added.

Canada Jan jobs boom contradicts flagging output

by David Ljunggren

Canada added 88,900 jobs in January, almost nine times the number forecast, but analysts said Friday the data did not seem to be consistent with other indications that output is flagging. Statistics Canada said the overall jobless rate moved up to 6.2 percent, as expected, from 6.1 percent in December because more people had joined the work force. The increase in the number of jobs was far greater than the 10,000 new positions predicted by analysts. Analysts said if the figures were accurate they would douse speculation that the Bank of Canada was planning to cut interest rates. “I think it quashes talk of the Bank of Canada easing. It's very difficult to think that the bank would seriously consider easing with the jobs number on fire like this,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, in Toronto. Statistics Canada said the healthy jobs data reflected booming growth in the western provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. In January the number of full-time positions rose by 45,900 while the number of part-time jobs went up by 42,900.

The figures contrast with gloomy predictions by the Bank of Canada, which last month slashed its estimates for fourth-quarter growth to 1.5 percent – down from its previous forecast of 2.8 percent – although it saw growth rebounding to 2.4 percent in the first quarter. “These numbers really, really don't square with the underlying softness that we're seeing in the Canadian economy,” said Marc Levesque, a bond strategist at TD Securities in Toronto. Mark Chandler, a bond strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said the figures made him question Statistics Canada's figures for employment and output. “It still leaves us with the problem that we've had for several months: we still can't square the growth of employment with the estimated growth in output,” he said. The Canadian dollar rose sharply to C$1.1777 to the U.S. dollar, or 84.66 U.S. cents, up from C$1.1843, or 84.44 U.S. cents, before the data. Porter said the seemingly contradictory jobs and output data could be explained by high immigration levels which forced new entrants to the labor force to take low-paying jobs. “It's also partly explaining the low productivity performance of the economy, the fact that people are taking whatever work they can get,” he said. The long-suffering manufacturing sector – hit hard by the strong Canadian dollar, higher costs and increased competition – grew for the third month in a row. Employment rose by 3,600 but the sector has lost 11,400 jobs since January 2006. The annual rate of increase in the average hourly wages of permanent employees continued to drop. The figure grew by 2.0 percent in January from January 2006, compared to rises of 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent in December and November respectively.