By 2031, Half of the Region's Residents will be Immigrants

If you think Greater Vancouver is ethnically diverse now, wait until 2031, when about one out of two people in the region will have been born outside of Canada. This is the region's demographic future if current trends - strong immigration flows from Asia and a low Canadian birth rate - continue over the next two decades, according to a new Statistics Canada report. "In 2031, about 50 per cent of the population in the census area of Vancouver will be immigrants," said Eric Caron Malenfant, one of the authors of the Statistics Canada report, called Demographic Changes in Canada from 1971 to 2001 Across an Urban-to-Rural Gradient. "Canada is seen as a neutral country that is friendly to immigrants. Canada is a country of immigrants and it projects an image that makes immigrants feel very comfortable," Eleanor Yuen, Head of Asian Library at the University of B.C. Immigrants will also make up 50 per cent of people in Toronto by 2031, said the report. And 25 per cent of Montreal's population will have been born abroad. In 2001, immigrants accounted for 38 per cent of Greater Vancouver's population and 18 per cent of Canada's, said Malenfant in an interview.

Immigration, which has remained high since the end of the '80s, has been the main driver of population growth in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. He said that about two-thirds of Canada’s population growth is due to immigration, with natural population increase accounting for the remaining quarter. The fertility rate in Canada declined significantly between 1971 and 2001, dropping from slightly over 2.1 children per woman in 1971 to approximately 1.5 in the early part of 2000. In fact, 1971 was the last year Canada's fertility rate exceeded the replacement level, which is the fertility rate required for the population to replace itself in the long term, without migration. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 births per woman. And fertility rates are lowest in Canada's three largest urban areas. "If these trends in immigration and fertility continue," said Malenfant, "then the increase in the diversity of Vancouver and Toronto will continue until 2031." Three out of four immigrants to Canada during the '90s settled in the three cities, he added. Malenfant said the latest projection is based on 2001 Census figures. China is the top source country for immigration to B.C., followed by India and the Philippines. The prediction of more diversity in the Lower Mainland isn't surprising to Andrew Ramlo, director of the Urban Futures Institute. He noted that the former visible-minority population in Richmond has become a "visible-majority," according to the 2001 Census figures.

Given the strong immigration flows and the low birth rate, it's a "no-brainer" to project that immigrants will eventually make up 50 per cent of Greater Vancouver's population, he added. Canada's natural population increase will decline even further over the next three to four decades as baby boomers die, he added. Immigration accounted for 205,000 new arrivals in Canada last year. Eleanor Yuen, head of the Asian Library at the University of B.C., said the 2031 projection makes sense given current demographic trends. But she said there are many variables that could change the rate of immigration, including geopolitical changes in Asia. She noted that immigration from Hong Kong to Canada peaked in 1995 and tapered off in the late '90s as the Asian city's investment climate and job market improved. Yuen, who came to Canada 20 years ago from Hong Kong, said Canada's attraction for Asian immigrants is about more than economics. "Canada is seen as a neutral country that is friendly to immigrants. Canada is a country of immigrants and it projects an image that makes immigrants feel very comfortable."

Frustrated foreign doctors leave Canada for U.S

There are thousands of them in Canada. They're called IMGs, international medical graduates - trained doctors whose degrees are not recognized in this country. Consequently, many are going to the United States. This group, which has been estimated at 7,000 doctors, has long been touted as a solution to the shortage of doctors in Canada. But many who come here to practise still find themselves left idling outside the health-care system, as tough licensing standards and limited resources for training and support make finding a position in Canada a tedious, drawn-out process. In 1993, when there were only 24 residency positions available for such doctors in Ontario, Dr. Abera Abay, an Ethiopian-trained gastroenterologist, found he could go no further. Although he wanted to make Canada his home, Abay ended up finding success south of the border. He applied for his first American test in March 1994 and, by July 1995, was in an American residency program after attracting the attention of the Beth Israel Medical Center in Manhattan, where he was recognized as resident of the year in 1998.

"Getting the (visa) paper was way harder than passing the exams," he remembers. He is now in a successful practice in Connecticut. "I'm doing extremely well financially and in my profession here, so it's not a case of trying to protect the public," he said of Canada's application process for foreign doctors. "It's a case of bad judgement and protecting their own turf." Abay said he and his Canadian wife have thought of moving back even after spending years "chasing the Canadian system," but with at least two exams waiting for him, this seems unlikely. "Foreign graduates now know it's practically impossible to practise in Canada," he said. Dr. Asmat Khan decided to stick it out in Canada. But it took him 11 years. "I feel I'm a test case, because I got here in 1994 and only got to work in 2005," he said. "Every year I got accepted to the United States. Maybe I was stupid. Maybe I was too loyal to Canada." Khan has worked in psychiatry in Ottawa since 2005. He struggled to practise in this country, even after being accepted in the U.S., although with a Pakistani medical degree, it took seven exams and changing from his original neurosurgery specialization. Khan, 42, describes those years in limbo as very difficult for his family, when he only managed to find volunteer work. He said he doesn't understand the element of resistance he sees to foreign-trained doctors in Canadian medicine, given the high standards to which immigrants to Canada are subject. He said in their home countries, they're usually in the top two per cent of their schools. Even though IMG candidates applying in the U.S. are subject to a similar range of exams and standards, administered by organizations like the Educational Commission for Foreign Medical Graduates, foreign-trained doctors in Canada often benefit from the sheer size of the health system in the United States. Arber Zaplluzha of Ottawa's Catholic Immigration Centre runs a program that aims to help foreign-trained doctors find medical work. He said he sees many turn to the American system after having difficulties in this country.

Making babies in Canada could save money

We spend billions on immigration instead of reproductive technologies. Here's some fertility "rights" science for you, courtesy of Denmark: Women will have babies - if they can. A scientific study reports Denmark has a birth rate of 1.9 children per woman, close to the 2.1 level needed to replace current populations, and much higher than most Western countries (Canada's is 1.6, Italy's is 1.2) despite the fact the age Danish women are having children at is rising. (Fertility declines after women hit 30.) What makes Danish women so fecund? The study, New Scientist magazine reports, theorizes it's because Denmark has a high proportion of babies born through artificial reproductive technologies (ART), including in vitro fertilization (IVF) - 4.2 per cent of births in 2002 compared to 1.4 per cent in Britain that year and 1.2 per cent in the U.S. in 2004. "The finding lends support to calls for increased government funding of IVF in other countries with flagging birth rates," New Scientist says. "In Denmark, IVF is widely accepted, heavily subsidized and waiting times are short." Not here. In Canada, we think couples who can't afford the costs - which can be as high as $30,000 an attempt - are out of luck. What happens instead is that people, like the couple who recently had sextuplets in B.C., turn to hyper-ovulation drugs, says Kerry William Bowman, an assistant professor of bioethics with the University of Toronto. And how much more does neonatal care for premature babies cost than ART? Or the higher health costs associated with preemie babies for their rest of their lives? Cost of ART still too high? How about the alternative? In Canada, we respond to low birth rates by increasing immigration - though it costs about $1.6 billion in departmental and resettlement costs to do so - and although immigration already accounts for two-thirds of our population growth, while domestic births account for only one-third and are expected to account for zero by 2030.

The result: Almost all our population growth is within metropolitan Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver - the cities that attract immigrants - increasing congestion, pollution, strains on social services, schools and transit and social tensions. In short, why is it easier - and more politically correct - to import babies, than to produce them? Prejudice is one problem - and it's not against immigrants, but against women in Canada, landed immigrants and citizens alike. Women are blamed for delaying childbirth even though it's couples making these decisions together, says Bowman. And women are often in a Catch-22 situation: Society frowns on out-of-wedlock births, teen pregnancies and couples having children before they can afford them. But if a woman goes through university, marries at the average age of 28 (because men are delaying marriage to 30) and then she and her husband establish themselves financially before starting a family, she might be in her 30s, when fertility is already declining. Add to that the fact many couples don't seek fertility treatment until they've spent years trying, and "we're talking mid-30s to mid-40s" - the predominant age of couples seeking fertility treatments, says Bowman.

Majority of new immigrants positive about coming to Canada: StatsCan

After immigrating to Canada from Dubai, Anne DeSouza felt depressed and sometimes cried as she and her husband were unable to find work for the first few months. But her husband's positive outlook and willingness to take jobs below his qualifications saw the family through the hard time. "It was teething troubles one has when one moves to a new place," DeSouza, 50, said from her home in Mississauga, Ont. After living in Canada for almost five years, the DeSouzas recently went back to Dubai for a visit. "I wanted to see whether I felt that nostalgia or longing for the place. But it wasn't there. I found it too crowded and fast, the traffic was crazy," she said. "We were missing Canada." DeSouza's experience jibes with a report from Statistics Canada that suggests more than 80 per cent of new immigrants are positive about their decision to come to this country. But immigrants did run into disappointments - in particular, difficulty finding work. The agency's report found half of those looking for employment said a lack of Canadian work experience was a problem. DeSouza can attest to that. "It's never easy for immigrants when you come here because you don't have the Canadian experience and nobody wants to give you the Canadian experience because you don't have the Canadian (experience)... it's a vicious circle," she said. The study is actually two reports. One examines immigrants' assessment of life in Canada and the other looks at the relationship between new immigrants' knowledge of the two official languages and their chances of finding an appropriate job. Both reports were the third wave in the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada. This survey was designed to examine how newly arrived immigrants adjust over time to living in Canada. The first wave was based on interviews with 12,000 immigrants aged 15 and older between 2001 and 2002, six months after their arrival. The second wave questioned 9,300 of the same immigrants about two years later and the final wave of 7,700 people was interviewed four years after their arrival. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Citizenship and Immigration said, "We are committed to establishing an office that will help provide newcomers with a clearer path on where to get their credentials assessed and will help foreign trained individuals get their credentials recognized more quickly." He added that the Conservative government has committed millions of dollars over two years for settlement funding to improve outcomes for newcomers.

Olivia Chow, the deputy immigration critic for the NDP, was not surprised by the study's findings. She said Canada's failure to recognize skilled immigrants is costing Canada in earnings, productivity and much needed services. She said the time for consulting has passed and it is time for action. "It's a lose, lose, lose situation," Chow said from her office in Ottawa. "Or it could be a win, win, win. We get more taxes, a more productive Canada and a better quality of life for immigrants and Canadians are served better and so our employers will be more competative." DeSouza said her husband had a high position with a clothing manufacturer in Dubai, with clients that included Gap and Banana Republic. But after 9-11, American orders dried up, and he needed to find work elsewhere. Their youngest daughter had just been accepted to the University of Toronto, their oldest daughter was going to university in the United States and they had cousins, albeit ones they'd never met, in Toronto. So instead of going back to India, where they were born, they looked to Canada. The Statistics Canada report found the most important reasons immigrants settle here are quality of life, to be close to family and friends, future prospects for their family and Canada's peaceful nature. The months following the DeSouzas' arrival in Canada were tough. Her husband was unable to find work for almost six months. After paying the girls' tuition and buying a house and car, their Dubai money was practically gone.

Her husband started in a low level job, and eventually became director of global sourcing at Roots Canada. "We are the fortunate ones," she said, adding many new immigrants, especially those whose first language is not English, go much longer without employment. Owen Phillips, senior methodologist at Statistics Canada, dealt with the report on language barriers in finding work. "Our data tell us the employment rate increases with the immigrants' ability to speak English. People who speak English well, or very well, have a better chance of finding an appropriate job than those who speak English less well," said Phillips. "The effect of French isn't as clear at the national level as what was observed for English." Some came to this country fully knowing the battles ahead. Khaled Islaih, an economics consultant working with the United Nations in Ramallah, West Bank, brought his wife and three sons to Canada knowing he would not get work in economics. "I knew ... my accent, the way I look, it doesn't fit with the Bank of Canada or the Ministry of Trade," he said from his office in Brampton, Ont., where he works helping immigrants adjust at the Brampton multicultural centre. "I took a totally different approach for my life in Canada." His wife, who works with computers, is staying home to care for their youngest son and taking English classes so she will be able to join the Canadian workforce. Still, Islaih knew he wanted to come to Canada because the social climate here was more tolerant towards different cultures and religions. "At the same time, I find Canada very complicated," said Islaih, who up until two years ago lived in a city where gunshots and other violence were not uncommon.