Immigration fuels two-thirds of Canada's recent growth

Canada's fast-growing population saw two-thirds of its increase over the past five years come from immigration — a force that in coming decades will make up almost all of the country's growth, according to census figures released Tuesday. The 2006 data released by Statistics Canada shows overall population growth of 5.4 percent, reflecting the highest rate among the Group of Eight industrialized nations. Canada now has 31.6 million people. Among the G8 countries, only the United States, at 5.0 percent, approaches Canada's growth. France and Italy grew 3.1 percent and Britain, 1.9 percent; but growth for Japan and Germany was near zero and Russia shrank 2.4 percent over the same five-year period. With an almost flat birth rate, the country is reaching a unique situation, said Laurent Martel, a Statistics Canada analyst. "We're heading towards a point where immigration will be the only source of growth in Canada," Martel said. About 1.2 million new immigrants were behind Canada's growth, far outpacing 400,000 native-born citizens.

Canada's net migration, per capita, is among the world's highest. The country had a net migration of 6.5 migrants per 1,000 population between 2000-2004, according to the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Unlike the United States, where the immigration issue has sparked major policy debates and legal challenges as states and municipalities work unilaterally to deal with an influx of illegal immigrants, there is little public debate in Canada on the dramatic shift. "We have not strategically thought through how we should manage our largest single source of population for net growth," Michael Bloom, a vice president with the Conference Board of Canada, told The Canadian Press. Canada's shift toward immigration being its only source of growth is still a couple of decades away. That point will not be reached until after 2030, when the peak of the baby boomers born in the 1950s and early 1960s reach the end of their lives. "You're going to see an increase in the number of deaths in Canada, and the number of deaths will exceed the number of births — so natural increase will become negative," said Martel. "The only factor of growth will then be immigration."

Canada's national birthrate is about 1.5 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. The country's growth over the past five years was up from 4 percent in the previous five-year census period, which had been the slowest half-decade in modern Canadian history. Immigrants are largely settling in Canada's largest cities, which attract more than 80 percent of newcomers. The census figures show Toronto remains Canada's biggest metropolitan area, with 5.1 million people. Montreal has 3.6 million, and Vancouver has 2.1 million. About 35 percent of Canada's population lives in the three metropolitan regions. The OECD has found that Canada, relative to its geographic expanse, has the most geographically concentrated population in the world. The overall census response rate was about 97 percent, which is normal, said census director general Anil Arora. Canada's estimated current population is actually around 33 million, but the census figure for May 16, 2006, shows 31,612,897 Canadians because the census count reflects only enumerated households.

No comments: